What is the template for a successful chase in the IPL?

A look at how teams successfully get to targets in the tournament and what they do at each stage of a game

Himanish Ganjoo31-Aug-2020Limited-overs cricket divides the game into two halves: batting first and chasing are markedly different from each other. With a target in sight, batting sides approach their innings considering what they need to achieve. Compared to the uncertainty involved in setting a good target, this largely makes chasing a better strategy, which is why teams winning the toss have chosen to field first in 77.6% of completed matches in the IPL since 2015. When they opt to chase, teams win 57.5% of matches. On the other hand, even when they lose the toss and are asked to chase, they win 52.5% of the time. Teams have identified that chasing presents a clear advantage. But what does the average chasing side do right? How is the standard chasing win constructed in the IPL?In this article, we will analyse chases of 140 or more in the last five IPL seasons, to restrict our data to reasonably challenging targets in the recent past.Looking at the chances of winning a chase, a total of between 140 and 160, which would be considered slightly under par on an average T20 wicket, presents a 61.1% chance of being chased down; 177 is the average target for teams in this dataset, and that falls at the end of the 160-180 bracket, which is a traditional “par” score and corresponds to a roughly 57% and 44% success rate.

To break up how winning sides construct their chases, let us first look at the powerplay. The median winning team achieves 31.07% of its target by the end of the powerplay, for the loss of one wicket. The median losing side, in contrast, gets to just over 26% of the target at that stage, while losing two wickets. Remarkably, the average percentage of target scored in the powerplay is mostly consistent for winning sides, across target ranges.

The average winning sides score a tad more than 30% of the target in the powerplay, which makes up 30% of the allotted overs. In addition, the median number of wickets lost is one, across all target ranges. Typical winning teams follow the consistent strategy of staying just abreast of the required rate while conserving wickets.Losing sides, on the other hand, make less and less of the target as it goes higher, and lose a median of two wickets in the powerplay. They fall behind the curve even in the first segment of the innings.

The number of wickets that fall in the powerplay is well correlated with chances of winning a chase. As the following table shows, each additional wicket down at six overs brings the win probability down by huge margins. No doubt, this is correlated with low run rates that come about due to the loss of wickets.

However, if a side makes more than 30% of the target in the powerplay, staying close to the required run rate, there’s no clear trend saying more wickets lost leads to a lower win probability.

Bowling philosophies in the powerplay are varied. Batsmen are most conservative at the start of the innings, and some teams try to sneak in a few “quiet” overs to retain more attacking options for later. The above data suggests that bowling teams should look to attack more and take wickets early on, deflating the innings before the batsmen start to cut loose to utilise the field restrictions towards the end of the powerplay overs.The seventh over, when batting teams are waking up to the second epoch of their innings, should be the designated slot for getting through a part-timer’s over. The Melbourne Renegades have employed Tom Cooper to this end.Tom Moody, on a recent episode of the Pitch Side Experts Podcast, agreed about attacking bowling early in the piece: “In the first six overs… the value of wickets outweighs the fact that you may go for a few boundaries, so I’d much rather focus on setting up the first six overs with an attacking approach, knowing that if I’ve got two or three in the bag after six overs, we’re in a very strong position to control the innings.”On the other hand, the chasing team could employ dispensable pinch-hitters at the top of the order for short, fast knocks that make the most of the first three overs, when both teams are playing circumspectly. This ensures an early lead over the required rate, without the loss of a wicket meaning much. In the UAE, where pitches are more sluggish than in India, making hay while the ball is hardest might prove to be a key strategy.***Minimising the loss of wickets while going at the asking rate till the powerplay ends seems to be the way an average team goes about winning a chase. How does the rest of the innings pan out?The mean percentage of the target scored in wins is more than that in losses at all stages of an innings. The average unsuccessful chasing side is always behind the average successful one in every phase of the innings, and the gap increases as the innings progresses. The average lost chase reaches 90% of the target if the innings lasts 20 overs.The curve for the typical won chase follows the line of equality closely: the percentage of the target scored is almost always hugging the percentage of deliveries taken. This suggests a bare minimum optimal strategy for chases, which has also been suggested by various operations-research studies on cricket: try to go at the required rate, always.

The average number of wickets lost tells the same tale: a normal chase-winning batting order always has more than one wicket extra in hand compared to a losing one. This difference dwindles as the chase approaches the end and wickets in hand lose their relative value, but from overs six to 16, the gap is always more than one wicket.

That the gap closes towards the end of the chase reflects the dispersion of aggression in a typical victorious chasing innings. Batting sides up the ante as the innings draws to a close.The distribution of aggressive intent from a batting side can be seen in the runs it scores in context of the current required rate. Till how late in the innings are batsmen willing to not strike faster than what is needed? The next graph takes the runs scored off a given ball minus the required runs per ball and averages it for each over. In conjunction with the probability of losing wickets in each over, this explains the distribution of batting resources in a normal chasing win.

An average successful chase can be broken into four phases. In the first two overs, batsmen are settling in, gauging the conditions and conserving their wickets, happy to score below the starting required rate. This increases the asking rate, but they then capitalise on the fielding restrictions in the latter half of the powerplay, going at 0.1 to 0.2 runs per ball faster than what is asked for. From the seventh to the 12th over, they again switch to going below the needed rate, cruising while not drifting too far below it. Noticeably, the seventh over is the most conservative – with the lowest chance of losing wickets, and a run rate well beneath what is required.

The intermediate phase increases the required rate, but since fewer risks are taken, it sets a launchpad for the final stretch. The pacing in the middle overs and the gradual rise of the scoring rate means that the required run rate stays manageable till the 13th over begins, after which the batting steps on the pedal.In contrast, the average differential of runs scored and runs needed per ball is negative for all overs in lost matches. This is in addition to the wicket probabilities being higher, again, for all overs.

The average unaccomplished chase keeps drifting farther away from the right course, the sluggish scoring and the loss of wickets feeding each other and deflating the innings cumulatively. Wickets slow the batting down, boosting the required rate, leading to more risks and more wickets.

At the end of the 12th over, the median winning team breaks even with their run-scoring rate compared to the asking rate. At this stage, the median winning team leaves 70 runs to get, with eight wickets hand, while in losses, the median equation is 90 runs needed with seven wickets in hand. Good chasing teams work towards the target throughout the innings, seldom leaving too much work for the end.Nevertheless, can we pinpoint a “par” target to leave for the last eight overs, which gives you a 50-50 chance of knocking the target down?To accomplish this, we will fit our data to a mathematical model that predicts the chances of winning, given how many runs need to be got and how many wickets remain at the end of 12 overs. Our method of choice will be logistic regression, which uses available data to smoothly predict the chances of a binary result (in our case, win or loss). This will tell us how much an average team can leave for the last phase, depending on the number of wickets they have intact, to give themselves an even chance of victory.This figure shows the predictions of the model after accounting for data from chases of greater than 140. The three different lines correspond to situations with zero, two, and four wickets down at the end of the 12th over. If a team has lost no wickets, anything under 90 runs needed will give them a greater than 50% chance of winning. Having 60 runs to win will give them an 80% chance of a win.

The equivalent value for a 50-50 chance if a team is two wickets down at the same stage is about 80 runs, and 70 runs if four wickets have been lost. Notice that this par target decreases by about ten runs for every two wickets lost at this stage of the innings. This quantifies the payoff between conserving wickets and scoring runs in the middle overs: for every wicket you lose, you should be about five runs closer to the target to maintain even odds of success.

'I think it was a dream' – Joao Pedro delights in Chelsea debut as Brazilian apologises to former club Fluminense after Club World Cup victory

Joao Pedro made a "dream" debut for Chelsea as he scored a brace in the club's 2-0 win over Fluminense in the Club World Cup semi-finals on Tuesday. Pedro issued an apology to his boyhood club but expressed his delight after firing Chelsea into the final in his first game since joining the Blues from Brighton.

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Pedro delighted to score brace on debutApologised to FluminenseChelsea reached final with 2-0 winFollow GOAL on WhatsApp! 🟢📱WHAT HAPPENED?

The Brazilian attacker made an instant impact after completing his move to Chelsea this summer as his brace sent the English side to the Club World Cup final at the expense of Fluminense. Pedro opened the scoring in the 18th minute against his former club before doubling his tally in the 56th minute to seal a crucial win for his new team.

Advertisement(C)Getty ImagesTHE BIGGER PICTURE

The Blues missed the services of another new signing in Liam Delap, who was serving a one-game suspension, but Pedro's fiery form upfront hardly let the Premier League side feel the English forward's absence. After the game, the ex-Brighton star apologised to Fluminense, where he spent his formative years before making his senior debut for the Brazilian side in 2019.

Watch every game of the FIFA Club World Cup live on DAZNStream nowWHAT PEDRO SAID

Speaking to DAZN at full time, the 23-year-old said: "I think it was a dream. I don't think it could have been better. Two goals. Now we need to think about the final. I am very happy to score two goals today. I can just say sorry (to Fluminense) but I have to be professional. I play for Chelsea. They pay me to score goals and today I was happy to score."

AFPWHAT NEXT FOR CHELSEA?

Enzo Maresca's side will now face the winner of the second semi-final between Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain in the showpiece event on July 13.

In darkest hour, Australia start to listen

After years of either wilful or inadvertent ignorance, Australia have recognised the need for a change in attitude for the benefit of their most influential stakeholders: their fans

Daniel Brettig in Johannesburg03-Apr-2018In his famous 1992 Redfern speech, Australia’s then Prime Minister Paul Keating spoke of how to mend years of misdeeds against the nation’s indigenous population. Mulling over where to start, he offered the words that “the starting point might be to recognise that the problem starts with us”, and healing “begins, I think, with that act of recognition”.Outright awful though Australia were on the final day of the series at the Wanderers, wickets tumbling as Vernon Philander toyed with heavy legs, tired eyes and addled brains, the acts of recognition were plain to see. First, a guard of honour for Morne Morkel on his final day as a Test cricketer. Later, a bevy of handshakes and the promise of shared post-series drinks in the South African dressing room. Lastly, further eloquent words from the new captain Tim Paine, which echoed Keating in terms of recognising the need for a change in attitude and behaviour after years of either wilful or inadvertent ignorance.”Well, the first thing is we have to, I suppose, listen,” Paine said when asked how his team might reconnect with Australia. “We’ve potentially maybe had our head in the sand a little bit over the last 12 months, [thinking] if we continue to win we can kind of act and behave how we like and the Australian public will be okay with that.”What we’ve probably found out in the past month or so is that the Australian public and our fans don’t necessarily like the way we go about it. It’s pretty simple. We have to listen. We have to take it on board and we have to improve our behaviour in the way we play the game. I know the guys are certainly on board and it’s something that we’re excited again to go forward and be able to do.”

What the Australians will discover, should they listen to South Africa, will not be instructions on how to go about things, but plenty of advice about how Faf du Plessis’ team have built up a culture within the four walls of their dressing room

There was attentiveness, too, in how Paine approached the chance to speak with the victorious South African team, the first side to beat Australia at home since readmission, and in a manner so comprehensive as to inflict the fourth-heaviest defeat, in terms of runs, in all Test history. “We’ve been invited in in the next half an hour actually. It’s an early beer, that’s for sure. It might be a coffee. But we’ll go next door,” Paine said. “We’ve got some young players in our team who will learn a lot from going to have a beer with some of the experienced players that the South Africans have got, so we’d be foolish not to take that opportunity.”What the Australians will discover, should they listen to South Africa, will not be instructions on how to go about things, but plenty of advice about how Faf du Plessis’ team have built up a culture within the four walls of their dressing room that ensures both the image of the team and the conduct of the players are kept in strong health. All this being done without anything like the money, resources or administrative stability that Australia have boasted for years.”Our culture is the same no matter who we play, it’s not about the opposition, it’s about us, and we do spend a lot of time and energy making sure, if you can call it that, training your culture, but to make sure we stay on it from a daily perspective,” du Plessis said. “If there’s stuff that falls out of line, we quickly nip it in the bud because we don’t want to have a cancer effect where it spreads through the team and you start having a few bad things happen within the team, so we are very, very strong on that.”I believe that’s our strength as a team, we’ve spent so much time and energy on that, you ask a lot of players and they will say that this culture in the Protea team is something you have to be a part of to understand how special it is, so we take a lot of pride in it. For it to be almost a 12th man on the field, it’s not always that your skills are going to be there, and you can’t control to score hundreds or take five-fors, but you can control your culture.”We never want to seem arrogant. Obviously sometimes you’ll get things or situations that can look that way, but as a team we deal with it in the same manner, as much as we can we want to be humble at all times. You can see we’ve got two or three of the world’s best players in our team and you would never see them … there are never days when their egos will be any bigger than the team, the team will always come first, no matter what.”Paine, meanwhile, draws a lot from his experience winning Sheffield Shield titles alongside George Bailey, the longtime Tasmania and sometime Australia ODI captain. Tasmania have overachieved for some years relative to the size of their state, partly because they have become a popular destination for aspirational players surplus to requirements in other states. The need to balance all these personalities and backgrounds placed a premium on ensuring players did not feel they had to conform to a narrow expectation of what they and the team must be. As Bailey said of Ed Cowan on the eve of his 2011 Test debut: “That is the most important thing, and the key to his success: he’s just allowed to be Eddie.” Paine said Bailey loomed large among those he had learned from.AFP”George is a very good friend of mine and I’ve played under him for a long time so I’ve certainly learnt a lot about the way he captains and his leadership style,” Paine said. “I certainly take a lot of the way he goes about but there is other guys as well. I’ve always thought about going into coaching or something like that after cricket so I’ve constantly sort of written things down that I’ve liked about coaches and other leaders that I’ve played under. I suppose try to take bits that I like and mould it to something that fits me.The other thing that Australia’s players must listen to, of course, is the sound of edges being flicked and stumps being crashed through. Humility about the team’s attitude and approach to opponents and the cricket watching public must be matched by attentiveness about the technical task of playing to a high standard, now with the additional handicap of losing Steven Smith and David Warner for at least 12 months. Even factoring in the mental fatigue of the tour and its disasters, there was a lot to be troubled by on day five.Particularly, the set-up, foot movement and swing plane of Peter Handscomb left many to wonder what exactly he had been working on over the three or so months since his previous Test match, and with whom. At the same time, Mitchell Marsh has shown evidence of a slow deterioration from the fundamentals he worked on with Scott Meuleman over several months out with injury last year, which had put him in such a strong position to score runs in the Ashes and then the first Test of this series in Durban.With the likes of Paine and Pat Cummins being unable to replicate earlier rearguards, it made for a shudderingly quick finish and another question that the team and their incoming coach must ponder. Darren Lehmann’s tenure as coach was ended with an acute example of the batting collapses that have been more or less his constant companion.”I don’t think it was one day too many, I think it was a few,” Paine said. “There’s been enough spoken about the week we’ve had. We’re disappointed with the way we handled it. This group in here had the chance to show some real fight and determination and unfortunately we weren’t able to because I think mentally we weren’t quite there. You only have to be slightly off in any game of cricket, let alone a team as good as South Africa, and you get exposed. We certainly were today.”I haven’t spoken to many guys about going home, there certainly hasn’t been that feel, coming into the Test match I thought we were going to be a hell of a lot better than what we were, obviously it had more of an effect on guys than we knew, the opportunity to get home, and reset might be refreshing for the guys in the next couple of days. At the moment, there is a fair bit of disappointment and borderline embarrassment in the dressing rooms.”There cannot have been, in all of Australian cricket history, a more shattering tour, not only resulting in abject defeat on the field but a total destruction of the team’s image and culture. One of the most heedless lines uttered over the past 24 hours was by the selector Mark Waugh, a great batsman and cricketer who has let the substance of the past week pass him by. “I might be missing something,” Waugh said on Sydney radio, “but I don’t see this team as any different as any other team from previous eras.”It took 15 years after Keating’s speech for another Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, to offer a formal apology to indigenous Australians. Waugh’s words offered a reminder that the listening process advocated by Paine will be long and difficult.

Second-shortest Test in the last 50 years

Bharath Seervi27-Dec-2017Over in two days, 907 balls
The Port Elizabeth Test between South Africa and Zimbabwe gets registered as one of the shortest completed Tests in history. With a result produced in only 907 balls, this is now the second-shortest Test, in terms of balls, in last 50 years. Among Tests played in South Africa, only once has a Test been completed with fewer deliveries bowled. That was way back in 1889 when the Cape Town Test ended in just 796 balls.The last time a Test got completed within two days was in 2005, which also featured Zimbabwe. They had suffered this fate twice that year – against South Africa in Cape Town in March and by New Zealand in Harare in August. In the last 50 years, this is only the fifth Test to be finished in two days and all those instances have been since 2000. Zimbabwe, however, have been involved in three of them.

Tests completed in two days in last 50 years
Team 1 Team 2 Runs Wkts Venue Year
England West Indies 505 30 Leeds 2000
Australia Pakistan 422 30 Sharjah 2002
South Africa Zimbabwe 659 23 Cape Town 2005
Zimbabwe New Zealand 610 29 Harare 2005
South Africa Zimbabwe 498 29 Port Elizabeth 2017

In terms of match aggregates in completed Tests, this match ranks sixth-lowest in the last 50 years with 498 runs: 309 by South Africa and 189 by Zimbabwe. Since South Africa’s readmission, this match has the lowest aggregate in a completed Test in South Africa.South Africa’s comfortable winThe hosts required only 436 balls to dismiss their oppositions twice in this match. This is the least balls they have ever bowled to claim 20 wickets. The previous lowest was 440 balls against India in Durban in the Boxing Day Test of 1996. In the last 50 years, only four times has a team taken all 20 wickets in fewer balls than South Africa’s 436 balls in this match. England had taken only 413 balls against Zimbabwe at Lord’s in 2000, which is the lowest in this case.South Africa’s bowlers conceded only 198 runs and picked 20 wickets, an average of 9.45 runs per wicket in this match: the fourth-best for any team taking all 20 wickets in a Test in last 50 years. New Zealand (thrice) and South Africa (twice) appear in the top-five in this list with Zimbabwe on the receiving end thrice.

Best bowling averages by teams in a Test taking 20 wickets (last 50 years)
Bowling team Against Balls Runs Ave Venue Year
New Zealand Zimbabwe 477 158 7.90 Harare 2005
South Africa India 440 166 8.30 Durban 1996
New Zealand England 608 175 8.75 Christchurch 1984
South Africa Zimbabwe 436 189 9.44 Port Elizabeth 2017
New Zealand Zimbabwe 464 194 9.69 Napier 2012

South Africa had never won by an innings after scoring as low as 309 in their first innings. Their lowest score to win by an innings was 326 against Australia in Hobart last year. Also, 309 runs is the second-lowest total for a team to win by an innings in the last 15 years. England had won by an innings after scoring just 298 against Sri Lanka at Leeds in 2016. This is the third time South Africa enforced follow-on this year, the most they have done this in any calendar year. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh also lost by an innings to South Africa in 2017.

Smart Stats: How about Sherfane Rutherford for Man of the Match?

The West Indian dasher made the highest contribution to Delhi Capitals’ win according to ESPNcricinfo’s Smart Stats

ESPNcricinfo Stats team28-Apr-2019The official match award in Delhi Capitals’ 16-run win over Royal Challengers Bangalore went to Shikhar Dhawan for his 37-ball 50, but ESPNcricinfo’s Smart Stats reckoned that Sherfane Rutherford made the highest impact for Capitals in their win, which put them in the IPL playoffs for the first time since 2012.Rutherford contributed with both bat and ball to Capitals’ cause: he scored a blistering 13-ball 28 not out that helped Capitals add 46 runs in their last three overs from a tricky position, and then took the key wicket of AB de Villiers at a critical juncture in the chase.Smart Stats valued Rutherford’s 28 runs worth 12 more, given the context of the game, as we considered the relative strike rate of the batsman and the pressure on him.ESPNcricinfo LtdThe wicket of de Villiers was also valued higher than just 1 because of the quality of the South African batsman, and the damage he could have inflicted had he batted on given the target was well within Royal Challengers’ sights. They needed 85 from 52 balls with eight wickets in hand when de Villiers was dismissed. Overall, Rutherford’s impact in Delhi’s win was 31.4%, the most by any Delhi player.Axar Patel’s cameo of 16 not out off nine balls, and his economical spell of 1 for 26 that included the prized wicket of Virat Kohli, earned him the next highest impact at 24.1%. Capitals captain Shreyas Iyer took the third spot at 14.7% for his 37-ball 52.

Tottenham set to bid £34m for Richarlison replacement who is keen on moving

Tottenham Hotspur are ready to test the water with an offer to sign a potential replacement for exit-linked forward Richarlison, and it is believed the Spurs target is keen on a big move elsewhere this summer.

Tottenham prepared to sanction cut-price Richarlison sale

The Brazilian was linked with a move away from N17 last summer, with clubs in Saudi Arabia displaying a public interest, but Richarlison opted to remain in north London and fight for his place under Ange Postecoglou.

£35m Premier League forward wants to join Tottenham after talks

Spurs are convinced.

By
Emilio Galantini

Mar 6, 2025

Richarlison was adamant that a move to Saudi didn’t interest him at the time, but the forward has since struggled with injuries and a lack of opportunities to establish himself as a star player under Postecoglou as a result.

Tottenham’s next five Premier League fixtures

Date

Bournemouth (home)

March 9th

Fulham (away)

March 16th

Chelsea (away)

April 2nd

Southampton (home)

April 5th

Wolves (away)

April 12th

Reports suggest this could be the South American’s final season at Spurs, with Everton said to be planning talks to sign Richarlison early on in the summer window as they prepare for life in a state-of-the-art new stadium at Bramley Moore Dock.

Richarlison injured for Tottenham

Spurs chairman Daniel Levy is apparently prepared to take a £20 million loss on the 27-year-old’s sale this summer as well. Tottenham are willing to sanction Richarlison’s sale for £40 million, far beneath the £60 million they paid to sign him from Everton in 2022, according to GiveMeSport.

With Everton lurking in the background for Richarlison’s signature, there are now reports emerging of the Lilywhites scouring for possible replacements. As per CaughtOffside, Bournemouth star Antoine Semenyo is firmly in Spurs’ thinking.

Tottenham set to bid £34 million for Bournemouth forward Antoine Semenyo

According to their information, Semenyo is one of Tottenham’s priorities to replace Richarlison, following his excellent campaign under Andoni Iraola at the Vitality Stadium.

It is also claimed in the report that Spurs are set to test Bournemouth’s resolve with a £34 million bid for the 25-year-old, who will actually face off against Postecoglou’s side later today, so it will be interesting to see how he performs.

Bournemouth's Antoine Semenyo vs Wolves in the FA Cup.

In the build up to this game, Semenyo has bagged nine goals and five assists across 30 appearances in all competitions, with his performances also attracting attention from Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea, Newcastle and Serie A title chasers Napoli.

It is added that Semenyo is keen on a big move elsewhere this summer, which could hand Spurs a boost. The former Bristol City star has also been praised for his top flight performances this season, especially by Sky Sports pundit Jamie Redknapp.

“He’s a lovely footballer to watch”, said Redknapp on Premier League productions earlier this term.

“The manager’s taken him to another level, he obviously has that capability because you saw it with Solanke. I’m just seeing him elevate his game right now, we’ll talk about why does that happen, a lot of it is purely on confidence.

“He looks like he’s enjoying his football, his shoulders are back, he’s relaxed, every time he gets it, he plays with a bit of a swagger. He’s actually a joy to watch right now.”

Arsenal struck gold on amazing star worth more than Trossard & Lewis-Skelly

Arsenal came into this season hopeful of getting their hands on the Premier League title at the third time of asking, but unfortunately, that now seems incredibly unlikely.

Mikel Arteta’s side have not been the same team that looked almost unstoppable last year, and while injuries have undoubtedly played a part in that, some of the team’s stars just haven’t performed well enough.

Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard, for example, have all left a lot to be desired this year, with the latter only amassing a total of 13 goal involvements in 43 games, compared to the 19 he managed in 46 games last season.

However, it’s not all been doom and gloom, as some players have stepped up for Arteta in a big way, including Myles Lewis-Skelly, who’s now a part of Thomas Tuchel’s first England squad.

Why Lewis-Skelly deserved his England call-up

At the start of the season, you’d be hard-pressed to find a non-Arsenal fan who knew who Lewis-Skelly was, and yet, seven months later, the 18-year-old is one of the most talked-about youngsters in the country and is a part of the senior England squad.

Tuchel-England-squad

It’s certainly been a rapid rise for the Islington-born gem, but it’s one that is entirely deserved, as despite being so young, the exceptional talent has looked completely at home in the senior game.

For example, the Hale End star has made 26 first-team appearances this season, 16 of which have been starts, and of late, it would be fair to say he’s overtaken summer signing Riccardo Calafiori as the manager’s go-to left-back, despite the fact that his natural position is in central and defensive midfield.

What makes the youngster so impressive is the fact that he’s unfazed by everything, can outmuscle far more experienced players and, on top of having a sensational left foot on him, he’s unafraid to have a go at goal himself, as we saw in the game against Manchester City.

Finally, it’s not just on the pitch where the 18-year-old’s stock has risen according to Transfermarkt, he is now worth around €28m, which comes out to around £23.5m and is a sensational price tag for someone who only made his first team debut this season.

Arsenal's MylesLewis-Skellyin action with PSV Eindhoven's Guus Til

In all, Lewis-Skelly looks set to be a star for Arsenal and England for years to come, but even then, he’s worth considerably less than one of his teammates who didn’t get a call-up.

The Arsenal star worth millions more than Lewis-Skelly

When it comes to the other clear breakout star for Arsenal this season, you don’t need to look any further than fellow Hale Ender Ethan Nwaneri.

The 17-year-old phenomenon has already established himself as one of the team’s most dangerous attackers, which is reflected in his Transfermarkt valuation of €55m, which is about £46.2m.

That means he is now worth around £22.7m more than Lewis-Skelly and about £21m more than fellow winger Trossard, who has seen his valuation drop to €30m – £25.2m – this season.

Now, that is an extraordinary price tag for someone so young, but just like his academy teammate, the Enfield-born dynamo has more than proven his worth this season.

For example, in just 29 first-team appearances, totalling 1087 minutes, the often “unplayable” attacker, as dubbed by Jack Wilshere, has scored eight goals and provided one assist.

Appearances

29

Minutes

1087′

Goals

8

Assists

1

Goal Involvements per Match

0.31

Minutes per Goal Involvement

120.77′

That means the incredible talent is averaging a goal involvement every 3.22 games or every 120.77 minutes.

Moreover, the “special” number 53, as dubbed by respected football analyst Ben Mattinson, isn’t just scoring simple tap-ins; he’s been firing them in from range, dribbling past opponents and proving that he can be a genuine threat anywhere near the opposition’s penalty area.

Ultimately, while this season has not gone to plan, Arsenal have at least found two potentially world-class talents in Lewis-Skelly and Nwaneri, who, in years to come, could each be worth a king’s ransom.

Worth £36m more than Guimaraes: Arsenal struck gold with "world-class" star

The exceptional big-money star is one of Arsenal’s best players.

2 ByJack Salveson Holmes Mar 18, 2025

8 classic underdog cup final wins as Newcastle take on Liverpool in EFL Cup

da supremo: As serial-winning manager, Jose Mourinho, once poetically put it – “finals are not to be played, they are to win”.

da dobrowin: Whether it’s the EFL Cup or the World Cup final, no team or nation wishes to be on the losing side, with a showpiece outing providing the chance of earning immortality for the victors.

Witnessing two juggernauts going head to head to decide silverware is a real treat, but there’s perhaps nothing better than a David vs Goliath clash. An overwhelming favourite taking on a plucky underdog.

On most occasions, it is the superior outfit that takes the acclaim. But not always. Sometimes the football gods have something different in store for a final.

With that in mind, we’ve taken a look at some of football’s biggest showpiece shocks.

The best EFL Cup finals of all time – ranked

English football’s February showpiece event often has a lot to live up to. Here are some of the best League Cup finals ever seen.

ByStephan Georgiou Feb 8, 2024 8 Denmark v Germany, 1992 European Championship final

Put simply, Denmark just should not have won this tournament. Having famously not qualified for Euro 1992 before taking their place following Yugoslavia’s disqualification, the Danes went on to do much more than make up the numbers.

The shock here is more about their route rather than the final itself, as the Scandinavian nation showed they were more than a match for plenty of European sides.

After seeing off the likes of England, France and the Netherlands, the unlikeliest of final dates came against Germany, where they defeated the world champions 2-0 thanks to goals from John Jensen and Kim Vilfort (plus a bit of good, old-fashioned timewasting).

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ByJack Salveson Holmes Jun 14, 2024 7 Wimbledon v Liverpool, 1988 FA Cup final

“The Crazy Gang have beaten the Culture Club” was the immortal line that followed the final whistle at Wembley in 1988, but this was so much more than a clash of cultures.

Liverpool had not long confirmed their re-found status as champions of England, securing 90 points – 33 more than their cup final opponents.

The Reds had also gone on an incredible unbeaten run that term, losing just two games all year, ironically with a victory over Wimbledon sandwiched between them.

The Dons had never won a major trophy and the fixture was their first appearance in the final.

While overcoming their underdogs tag, they also survived a penalty scare as Dave Beasant saved from John Aldridge to keep Wimbledon in front, as Lawrie Sanchez’s goal proved enough to create history and one of the biggest shocks the competition had ever seen.

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1 ByRoss Kilvington May 12, 2025 6 Aston Villa v Bayern Munich, 1982 European Cup final

Having somewhat surprisingly won the league title the year before (their first for over 70 years), Aston Villa went one better by going all the way in the European Cup in 1982, beating one of the continent’s finest in the process.

Heading into the final in Rotterdam, it was Bayern Munich who had all the necessary experience to get the job done and secure a fourth European Cup.

However, the likes of Paul Breitner and Karl-Heinz Rummenigge were foiled by Villa – namely substitute goalkeeper Nigel Spink and match-winning goalscorer Peter Withe.

To this day, there has arguably not been a shock like it at that level of the European game.

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ByPatric Ridge May 30, 2025 5 Birmingham v Arsenal, 2011 League Cup final

Birmingham City snatched an unlikely League Cup triumph at Wembley in February 2011, beating title challengers Arsenal in the final moments in dramatic circumstances.

Having taken a surprise lead through Nikola Zigic, Robin van Persie’s equaliser for the Gunners seemed to suggest normal service would be resumed as the favourites took control.

But a defensive mix-up between Laurent Koscielny and Wojciech Szczesny allowed Obafemi Martins to tap in the easiest of cup final winners, causing delirium in the blue half of Wembley.

It was a seismic shock given Birmingham – eventually relegated that season – had successfully seen off an Arsenal side going for the title and fresh from beating Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona a fortnight earlier.

It wasn’t the first time the Gunners had fluffed their lines in the competition, evoking memories of defeats to Luton Town in 1988 and Swindon Town in 1969.

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ByCharlie Smith Dec 18, 2024 4 Sunderland v Leeds, 1973 FA Cup final

Only two lower-league sides have won the FA Cup since Sunderland did in 1973, but the Black Cats’ victory over Leeds is surely the most impressive of the lot.

By this point, Leeds were consistently finishing highly in the First Division, and 1972/73 marked a 10th successive top-four finish. They’d also won two European Fairs Cups in that span and were reigning FA Cup holders.

But Bob Stokoe’s Sunderland had other plans. Ian Porterfield’s first-half goal was the crucial moment of the final, with the underdogs surviving a Leeds onslaught before hanging on to secure one of the famous tournament’s greatest achievements.

3 Greece v Portugal, 2004 European Championship final

Greece entered the 2004 European Championship as tournament nobodies. They had only qualified for two international final tournaments (Euro 1980 and the 1994 World Cup), winning zero games and scoring zero goals.

So when they were drawn in Group A with hosts Portugal and Spain (who they had beaten in qualifying), even the most optimistic of optimists will have struggled to see a path through the quarter-finals, never mind the final.

But under the guidance of Otto Rehhagel, the Greeks formed a defensive solidity that was the bedrock to their success. They beat Portugal in the opening game and held Spain to a draw, squeezing through the group on goals scored.

They proceeded to dump out reigning European champions France and an impressive Czech Republic side to make the final – both shocks in their own rights.

They kept a third successive clean sheet in the final to defeat Portugal once again and record one of the greatest international shocks – in the men’s game, at least…

2 Japan v United States, 2011 Women's World Cup final

Japan’s victory over the United States in the women’s 2011 World Cup final has to be one of the most remarkable outcomes in international football history.

While the US were not at their scintillating best – they came second in their group and had not tasted World Cup glory since 1999 – it is the journey of their victorious opponents that makes this result magical.

In a similar vein to Greece’s men, Japan had never made it past a World Cup group stage, but two wins from two meant their defeat to England was academic, aside from costing them top spot in Group B.

Their campaign also came off the back of Japan’s devastating tsunami, with all the odds pointing towards yet another World Cup triumph for the US, but for multiple displays of courage and perseverance from the underdogs.

Alex Morgan looked to have netted the winner with her 69th-minute finish, only for Aya Miyama’s late equaliser to force extra-time.

United States then had one hand on the trophy again when Abby Wambach nodded home in the added period, though they were to be left disappointed once more.

Homare Sawa’s flick from a corner saw Japan secure an improbable draw – with penalties deciding the winner, where fate was on their side in a 3-1 shootout success, sealed by Saki Kumagai’s spot-kick.

1 Wigan Athletic v Manchester City, 2013 FA Cup final

The 2013 FA Cup final pitted financial heavyweights and outgoing English champions Manchester City against perennial relegation candidates Wigan Athletic.

The Latics were hanging on for their Premier League lives at the time, while Man City had recently relinquished their hold on the title to their local rivals with a whimper.

However, the Citizens were the overwhelming favourites in what was a modern-day David vs Goliath story, sealed by Wigan’s Ben Watson in the dying moments of normal time.

The midfielder headed home from Shaun Maloney’s corner to hand Wigan their first major trophy and the club’s finest moment.

Unfortunately for the victors, they could not continue their heroics in the league as they were relegated just days later, and haven’t been back in the top flight since.

But the memories will last forever, and we’re unsure how long before another final shock as brutal as this one comes along again.

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1 ByAlex Caple May 25, 2024

VÍDEO: Joaquim, do Santos, enfrenta irmão pela Copa do Brasil e semelhança espanta

MatériaMais Notícias

da dobrowin: Joaquim do Multiverso? Após a classificação do Santos contra o Ceilândia, pela primeira fase da Copa do Brasil, um encontro entre jogadores adversários chamou a atenção. Os irmãos Matheus Emiliano, goleiro reserva do Gato Petro, e o defensor Joaquim, do Peixe, se encontraram depois do apito final. Muito semelhantes, os dois demonstraram que a rivalidade ficou dentro de campo e aproveitaram o tempo juntos. Confira no vídeo acima:

+ATUAÇÕES: Lucas Lima cria chances, e Joaquim traz a classifica Santos na Copa do Brasil

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Gilchrist 'fascinated' by Pant's positive impact on Indian keeper-batters

Rishabh Pant won’t be fit to play the upcoming World Cup but former Australian wicketkeeper Adam Gilchrist is still fascinated by the impact he has had in his six years with the Indian team.Pant, 25, made his international debut in February 2017 and has risen to be one of the first names down on the team sheet, especially in Test cricket. A strike rate of 73 in the longest format shows the kind of threat he poses to the bowlers and his performance against Australia – 274 runs in five innings, including a series-winning 89 at the Gabba – was crucial to one of India greatest achievements: taking home the Border-Gavaskar Trophy in 2020-21.”I think Rishabh has inspired a lot of wicket-keeper batters around the world to play that [aggressive] way. It is fascinating for such a young man to have such an impact that Rishabh has had, and others are responding and playing in that positive manner,” Gilchrist, who is in India on a promotional visit, told PTI.Pant is currently out of action having met with a horrific car accident last December. He is working his way back to full fitness at the National Cricket Academy in Bengaluru and is expected to make a comeback sometime next year.Related

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In Pant’s absence, KL Rahul is likely to keep wicket for India in the World Cup. Ishan Kishan also has experience behind the stumps but it appears his role in the first team will be limited to that of a middle-order batter. Gilchrist was impressed with how Kishan has shaped up despite knowing that he is behind Rahul in the pecking order.”They [India] are well stocked,” Gilchrist said. “They have got a couple of [wicketkeeping] options there, obviously, when KL was out with his injury, Ishan Kishan took his opportunity and played really well, and now they find themselves in the team together so that’s a wonderful case of taking an opportunity.”Being positive, and then, forcing the selectors into keeping you in the team [is impressive]. It seems like KL is gonna be the one who is going to continue with the gloves but it does not seem to hinder Ishan Kishan’s batting, he seems to be playing really well, carefree, attacking and dangerous.”Gilchrist reckons Australia will bounce back from the loss in South Africa•AFP/Getty Images

Gilchrist picks his World Cup semi-finalists

With the tournament less than three weeks away, and having won it three times, Gilchrist was asked to pick his final four. “I think India and Pakistan could feature, Australia and England are another two teams,” he said.Gilchrist is hopeful that Australia, five-time champions, will do well in India, where they won a bilateral series 2-1 in March 2023. He added that Adam Zampa, who finished with 0 for 113 and 3 for 70 in his last two ODIs in South Africa, will bounce back in more favourable conditions.”Australia will learn a lot from their efforts in South Africa when they come to India. They have got three games before the World Cup against India. So, they will have a bit more of a full-strength squad there, that might tell us a bit about where they are at.”Adam Zampa, in South Africa, was at the receiving end a little bit but it’s different conditions out here in India with different pitches and he is a world-class spin bowler, and he has shown that particularly across T20 cricket, and now he gets his chance in the 50-over World Cup. So it’s a very knowledgeable group and they are going to have to use all that experience against batting line-ups across the globe and play without fear.”There have been some suggestions about Australia pushing David Warner down the order but Gilchrist isn’t a fan. “He [Warner] looked really good in South Africa for the most part of what he did,” he said. “I think he has got to bat at the top, there has been some sort of discussions that he bats down the middle order but I think he has got to open. He showed in South Africa a couple of times that he is [as] aggressive and dominant at the top of the order as he has ever been. So, I think they bring with him a lot of experience and a lot of confidence, and I think he should play at the top of the order for Australia and if he plays really well then our opposition will fear that.”

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